Can Anybody Make Sense of this "We're climbing out of this recession" Jobs Story?

Posted on | September 3, 2010 | No Comments |

Ok, I understand how the unemployment rate can rise even though jobs were supposedly created in a month, but this story seems to be a paradox even Stephen Hawking would have trouble understanding.

From AP via Yahoo!:

Companies add 67K workers, but jobless rate rises

Private employers hired more workers over the past three month than first thought, lifting hopes for the weak economy ahead of the Labor Day weekend. But the unemployment rate rose in August for the first time in four months as more people entered the market looking for work.

Companies added a net total of 67,000 new jobs last month and both July and June's private-sector job figures were upwardly revised, the Labor Department said Friday.

That's good news IF one were to believe a Labor Department that will most likely come out in September to say that the numbers in this article were completely wrong.

Scott Brown, an economist at Raymond James, said he sees no sign of the country slipping back into recession.

"You're still seeing broad-based job gains. It's not strong, but it's positive," Brown said.

Scott Brown is an idiot. Here's where the story gets goes mumbo jumbo:

Overall, the economy lost 54,000 jobs as 114,000 temporary census positions came to an end. For the first time this year, the manufacturing sector lost jobs -- down a net total of 27,000 for the month. The auto industry accounted for 22,000 of those lost jobs, the department said. But those losses were largely due to a shift in the timing of the industry's summer layoffs.

Where are the 67,000 jobs gained in August then?

State and local governments shed 10,000 positions and have had net jobs losses in every month but one this year.

By 'shed' they probably mean converted into federal positions.

Temporary employment rose by nearly 17,000, after a slight loss in July. That indicates employers are looking to boost their work forces, but are reluctant to do so permanently. Temporary hiring averaged 45,000 per month from October to May, but has since slowed.

This is why Scott Brown, the economist, is an idiot. Here's where I'm thinking they're adding the 67,000 jobs in August:

The jobless rate rose to 9.6 percent from 9.5 percent in July. More than a half-million Americans resumed their job searches in August, which drove up the jobless rate. When the unemployed stop looking for work, they are no longer counted in the jobless rate. It's the first time the labor force has grown since April.

Both June and July's figures were revised to show the private sector created more jobs in both months. The July figures were revised upward to 107,000 from 71,000. June was revised upward to 61,000 from 31,000. The revisions reflected smaller losses in construction, temporary help services and non-census government jobs.

That's 66,000 jobs if you take the June and July revisions to heart, which I don't.

Could I be wrong? Nowhere in this article does it provide in detail the 67,000 jobs added in August. It states it, but then it details only the number of jobs lost during the month. Am I wrong? If so, somebody point me in the right direction.

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